Britain is on course to becoming a '2nd tier' European country like Spain or Italy due to economic decrease and a weak military that weakens its usefulness to allies, an expert has actually alerted.

Research teacher Dr Azeem Ibrahim OBE concluded in a damning new report that the U.K. has been paralysed by low investment, high tax and misguided policies that might see it lose its standing as a top-tier middle power at current growth rates.

The plain assessment weighed that succeeding federal government failures in policy and drawing in financial investment had actually triggered Britain to miss out on out on the 'markets of the future' courted by established economies.

'Britain no longer has the commercial base to logistically sustain a war with a near-peer like Russia for more than 2 months,' he wrote in The Henry Jackson Society's latest report, Strategic Prosperity: The Case for Economic Growth as a National Security Priority.

The report evaluates that Britain is now on track to fall behind Poland in terms of per capita earnings by 2030, which the main European country's armed force will soon go beyond the U.K.'s along lines of both manpower and devices on the existing trajectory.

'The concern is that once we are devalued to a second tier middle power, it's going to be practically difficult to return. Nations do not return from this,' Dr Ibrahim told MailOnline today.

'This is going to be sped up decrease unless we nip this in the bud and have vibrant leaders who have the ability to make the difficult decisions right now.'

People pass boarded up shops on March 20, 2024 in Hastings, England

A British soldier reloads his rifle on February 17, 2025 in Smardan, Romania

Staff Sergeant Rai uses a radio to speak with Archer teams from 19th Regiment Royal Artillery throughout a live fire range on Rovajärvi Training Area, during Exercise Dynamic Front, Finland

Dr Ibrahim welcomed the federal government's choice to increase defence costs to 2.5% of GDP from April 2027, however warned much deeper, systemic issues threaten to irreversibly knock the U.K. from its position as an internationally influential power.

With a weakening industrial base, Britain's effectiveness to its allies is now 'falling behind even second-tier European powers', he warned.

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'Not only is the U.K. forecasted to have a lower GDP per capita than Poland by 2030, however likewise a smaller army and one that is not able to sustain implementation at scale.'

This is of particular issue at a time of increased geopolitical stress, with Britain pegged to be among the leading forces in Europe's quick rearmament job.

'There are 230 brigades in Ukraine right now, Russian and Ukrainian. Not a single European nation to mount a single heavy armoured .'

'This is an enormous oversight on the part of subsequent governments, not simply Starmer's problem, of failing to invest in our military and essentially outsourcing security to the United States and NATO,' he told MailOnline.

'With the U.S. getting fatigue of supplying the security umbrella to Europe, Europe now has to base on its own and the U.K. would have remained in a premium position to actually lead European defence. But none of the European countries are.'

Slowed defence spending and patterns of low efficiency are nothing new. But Britain is now likewise 'failing to adjust' to the Trump administration's jolt to the rules-based international order, stated Dr Ibrahim.

The previous consultant to the 2021 Integrated Defence and Security Review kept in mind in the report that in spite of the 'weakening' of the institutions as soon as 'protected' by the U.S., Britain is reacting by hurting the last vestiges of its military might and financial power.

The U.K., he stated, 'appears to be making significantly pricey gestures' like the ₤ 9bn handover of the strategic Chagos Islands and opening talks on reparations for Caribbean Slavery.

The surrender of the Chagos Islands in the Indian Ocean has been the source of much examination.

Negotiations in between the U.K. and Mauritius were started by the Tories in 2022, however an arrangement was revealed by the Labour government last October.

Dr Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute defence and security believe thank cautioned at the time that 'the move demonstrates stressing strategic ineptitude in a world that the U.K. government refers to as being characterised by fantastic power competition'.

Calls for the U.K. to provide reparations for its historic function in the servant trade were rekindled also in October last year, though Sir Keir Starmer stated ahead of a meeting of Commonwealth countries that reparations would not be on the agenda.

A Challenger 2 primary battle tank of the British forces during the NATO's Spring Storm exercise in Kilingi-Nomme, Estonia, Wednesday, May 15, 2024

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk speak throughout a press conference in Warsaw, Poland, January 17, 2025

Dr Ibhramin examined that the U.K. seems to be acting versus its own security interests in part due to a narrow understanding of risk.

'We understand soldiers and missiles but stop working to totally envisage the danger that having no option to China's supply chains may have on our ability to react to military aggressiveness.'

He suggested a brand-new security design to 'boost the U.K.'s tactical dynamism' based on a rethink of migratory policy and hazard evaluation, access to rare earth minerals in a market dominated by China, and the prioritisation of energy security and independence through financial investment in North Sea gas and a long-overdue rethink on nuclear energy.

'Without immediate policy changes to reignite development, Britain will become a decreased power, reliant on stronger allies and susceptible to foreign coercion,' the Diplomacy columnist stated.

'As international financial competitors magnifies, the U.K. must choose whether to accept a strong development agenda or resign itself to irreversible decrease.'

Britain's dedication to the idea of Net Zero may be admirable, however the pursuit will inhibit growth and obscure tactical objectives, he alerted.

'I am not stating that the environment is not crucial. But we merely can not afford to do this.

'We are a nation that has stopped working to invest in our economic, in our energy infrastructure. And we have considerable resources at our disposal.'

Nuclear power, consisting of the use of small modular reactors, could be a benefit for the British economy and energy self-reliance.

'But we have actually failed to commercialise them and obviously that's going to take a substantial quantity of time.'

Britain did introduce a brand-new funding design for nuclear power stations in 2022, which lobbyists including Labour politicians had insisted was crucial to finding the money for pricey plant-building tasks.

While Innovate UK, Britain's innovation company, has been heralded for its grants for little energy-producing business at home, entrepreneurs have warned a larger culture of 'risk aversion' in the U.K. suppresses investment.

In 2022, earnings for the poorest 14 million individuals fell by 7.5%, per the ONS. Pictured: Waterlooville High Street, Waterlooville, Hants

Undated file picture of The British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT) or Chagos Islands

Britain has actually regularly failed to acknowledge the looming 'authoritarian hazard', permitting the pattern of managed decline.

But the renewal of autocracies on the world stage threats even more undermining the rules-based global order from which Britain 'benefits tremendously' as a globalised economy.

'The threat to this order ... has actually established partly since of the lack of a robust will to defend it, owing in part to deliberate foreign attempts to subvert the recognition of the real prowling risk they posture.'

The Trump administration's warning to NATO allies in Europe that they will have to do their own bidding has gone some method towards waking Britain approximately the urgency of purchasing defence.

But Dr Ibrahim alerted that this is not enough. He urged a top-down reform of 'essentially our whole state' to bring the ossified state back to life and sustain it.

'Reforming the welfare state, reforming the NHS, reforming pensions - these are basically bodies that use up immense quantities of funds and they'll just keep growing significantly,' he informed MailOnline.

'You could double the NHS budget and it will actually not make much of a dent. So all of this will require essential reform and will take a great deal of guts from whomever is in power because it will make them out of favor.'

The report lays out recommendations in extreme tax reform, pro-growth migration policies, and a renewed concentrate on securing Britain's role as a leader in modern markets, energy security, and worldwide trade.

Vladimir Putin speaks with the governor of Arkhangelsk region Alexander Tsybulsky during their meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Tuesday, March 11, 2025

File picture. Britain's economic stagnancy might see it soon end up being a '2nd tier' partner

Boarded-up stores in Blackpool as more than 13,000 shops closed their doors for good in 2024

Britain is not alone in falling behind. The Trump administration's insistence that Europe pay for its own defence has cast fresh light on the Old Continent's alarming scenario after decades of sluggish growth and reduced spending.

The Centre for Economic Policy Research assessed at the end of in 2015 that Euro location economic performance has been 'suppressed' since around 2018, illustrating 'multifaceted obstacles of energy reliance, manufacturing vulnerabilities, and shifting worldwide trade characteristics'.

There stay profound inconsistencies in between European economies; German deindustrialisation has actually struck services difficult and forced redundancies, while Spain has grown in line with its tourism-focused economy.

This stays delicate, nevertheless, with locals significantly upset by the perceived pandering to foreign visitors as they are priced out of affordable lodging and trapped in low paying seasonal jobs.

The Henry Jackson Society is a foreign policy and national security think thank based in the UK.

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